Housing Market Trends: Are They Helping or Hurting the Economy?
在一个不同寻常的转折中，美国.S. home values climbed to an annual record of $389,800 in 2023, even as mortgage rates rose to the highest levels in a generation. 成屋价格中值上涨4%.4% for the twelve months ended in December 2023 to reach $382,600. (Buying activity and prices tend to peak during the summer and tick back down when the market slows later in the year.)1
2023年10月底左右, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to a 23-year high of nearly 8%, 在稍微后退之前.2 But despite sky-high borrowing costs, buyer demand exceeded the supply of homes for sale.
As a result, sellers generally fared well, but 2023 was a challenging year for would-be homebuyers.
不确定的市场
Rising mortgage rates and home prices made it harder to afford a home, causing many buyers to be priced out of their favorite neighborhoods and forcing others out of the market altogether. In August 2023, housing affordability dropped to its worst levels since 1985.3
Many people who already own homes have been reluctant to sell and move because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates than they currently pay — a conundrum that has worsened the inventory shortage.
This persistent lack of inventory combined with low affordability has cut deeply into home sales. For all of 2023, existing home sales fell to the lowest level in nearly 30 years (4.0900万).4 An estimated 668,000 new homes were sold in 2023, an increase of 4.2% from the previous year, but new construction accounts for less than 15% of the total market.5
住房与国内生产总值
Housing contributes directly to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in two ways: spending on housing services and residential fixed 投资. 住房服务包括租金支付, imputed rent (the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes), 公用事业支付. Residential fixed 投资 includes new home construction, 住宅装修, 人造房屋的生产, 还有经纪人的费用. In the fourth quarter of 2023, housing accounted for $4.4万亿美元.S. GDP on a seasonally adjusted annual basis or 15.9% (12.住房服务为0%.住宅固定投资9%).6
New home construction stimulates local economies by creating higher-wage jobs and boosting property tax receipts. 全国（和地方）, 它也使其他类型的企业受益, by spurring production and hiring in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, 设备, 以及Windows等家用组件, 橱柜, 电器, 地板, 及设施. That’s why the Census Bureau’s report on housing starts — which were up 7.6% from the previous year’s level in December 2023 — is considered a leading economic indicator.7
房屋建设进入复苏阶段
In the third quarter of 2023, residential fixed 投资 added to U.S. GDP自2021年第一季度以来首次下降. But in Q4, an increase in new residential structures was offset by a decrease in brokers' fees.
Residential fixed 投资: contribution to change in GDP
资料来源:美国.S. 经济分析局，2024
消费者是关键
The health of the housing market can also affect economic activity in other industries indirectly. 例如, the “wealth effect” refers to how shifts in home prices, 向上或向下, 会影响消费者的财务状况, 信心, 和行为. 当房屋价值和资产净值上升时, consumers who own homes tend to feel wealthier and may be more comfortable spending their money.
The “transaction effect” describes the increase in consumer spending that typically occurs when people move into new homes, which tends to generate demand for goods and services such as 电器, 家具, 电子产品, 家居装饰, 以及景观. On the other hand, extremely low affordability might influence younger consumers in a different way. 当买房似乎遥不可及的时候, it may cause them to give up on saving for that goal and shift to spending on other things.
Given housing’s importance to the broader economy, there is some concern that a prolonged period of high interest rates could continue to constrain home building and sales, 导致房价下跌, 损害消费者信心. When the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, 抵押贷款也应逐渐效仿, but that’s not likely to happen until GDP growth slows and inflation is no longer seen as the larger threat.